Certainty Amid Uncertainty

November 5 marks the beginning of a complex process that takes several weeks to complete. Key milestones include:

• Certification of Election Results: Governors of each state handle the certification starting in mid-November, a process that may last up to five weeks.
• Electoral College Vote: The 538 electors will cast their ballots on December 17, reflecting the popular vote in each state. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. Any disputes over votes or recounts must be resolved by December 16.
• Contingency Measures: If no candidate achieves 270 electoral votes, the U.S. House of Representatives will decide the next president. Inauguration Day is set for January 20.

 Anticipated Legal Challenges  

More than 165 lawsuits have already been filed for the 2024 election. Expect additional disputes over issues like vote counting, absentee ballot collection, and voter identification.

 A close presidential race will be contested by whoever loses. Investors need to be ready for public drama, mass litigation, and a high degree of uncertainty between November 5 and January 20," says Matt Miller, political economist at Capital Group.

 Mail-in Ballots: A Source of Delay  

Mail-in ballots may be central to legal disputes. During the 2020 election, 43% of Americans voted by mail, a number that remains historically high. Significant delays are expected in processing these ballots.

In extreme cases, like the 2000 election, the U.S. Supreme Court may play a role. In 2000, the Court effectively decided the election by halting recount efforts in Florida 35 days after Election Day.

 Recounts Rarely Change Results  

Recounts are infrequent and seldom alter election outcomes. Of the 0.5% of elections with recounts, 92% upheld the original results, with only three overturns in extremely close races (less than 0.06% margin).

Long Term Investment Impact Remains Minimal 

Historically, elections show minimal impact on investment returns. From 1933 to 2023, the S&P 500 Index averaged returns between 11% and 14%, regardless of a split or unified government. A split Congress, like today’s, has yielded an average return of 13.7%.

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}